Centives

Iran’s parliament will soon vote on a bill blocking the Strait of Hormuz, through which 40% of seaborne oil passes. Doing so would ultimately hurt Iran writes Gal Luft:

• The cost of completely closing off the Strait would likely be prohibitive – even at its narrowest point the area is too large.
• The bigger problem for Iran though is that in response to threats to shut off the Strait, other countries have begun building oil pipelines that bypass Iran entirely.
• Since Iran’s diplomatic clout stems from the importance of the Straits and their close proximity to it, if the Straits no longer remain key to the international system, then Iran too will cease to become important.
• This has happened before. During the Italo-Turkish war the Turks cut off access to the Straits. This eventually contributed to the Ottoman Empire’s own demise.

To read more including why the Turks closed the Strait a century ago – and why it was eventually their undoing, why it probably won’t require another World War to cease to make Iran relevant, the steps that have already been taken to build pipelines, why Iran’s plummeting economy is important, and what oil markets think about the likelihood of the Straits being shut, click here.

Source: Foreign Policy

It’s possible that we’re approaching the limits of human achievement writes Peter Keating. Highlights include:

• Around 1993 performers in the majority of track and field events seemed to hit their plateau, being unable to improve on those performances.
• At this rate we’ll have reached the human limit in most sports by 2027.
• This is odd because over time performance should increase – since the number of people does.
• This is in part due to a dearth of innovation. It’s not just the human body that gets tested during The Olympics. Clothing, diet, chemicals and training all affect performance.
• It is theoretically possible, for example, for Usain Bolt to beat his 100-meter record. According to an expert if he got off the block quicker, ran at a 1,000 meter altitude, and had a strong tailwind he could make the 100 meter run in 9.44 seconds (rather than the current 9.58).
• Innovation has been halted by society. We don’t accept things like full-body swimsuits that helped peak times improve in the early 2000s while they were legal. Or drugs.

To read more including how Michael Phelps demonstrates the problem, what the experts have to say, the innovation in high jumping, the role that the Soviet Union played, and how current records will ultimately be broken, click here.

Source: ESPN

Via: Marginal Revolution

C. J. Chivers had the numbers related to what the economics of being a warrior fighting to overthrow the Syrian government were like:

• The price of weapons have soared. It’s not possible to get a modern rifle for less than $2,000 and a PK machine gun can cost as much as $7,000 on the black market.
• Ammunition is a constraining factor. It costs ~$2 per rifle round and guns such as the American M-16 are used as sticks because ammunition for them isn’t widely available.
• As the rebels make gains it is likely that prices will drop. They will have the opportunity to take the weapons of the government’s soldiers.
• Something similar happened in Libya where the rebels initially had to run into battle unarmed, planning to pick up the rifle of a fallen comrade because buying one’s own was too expensive. However as the rebels gained ground prices dropped.

To read more including how much it costs to arm three riflemen, a machine gunner, and a man with a rocket-propelled grenade (not counting ammunition), what rebels complain about, which weapons are successful, some more prices for various weapons, why the rebels don’t want the country to be like Somalia, and what will happen once the fighting stops, click here.

Source: New York Times

Via: Marginal Revolution

There’s a heatwave sweeping the United States which got J. Bryan Lowder wondering why summer weather and sweat dripping off bodies is so closely associated with sexiness. Highlights include:

• Estimates suggest that summer does not uniformly lead to more sex. People living in cooler climates seem to prefer it in the summer though.
• Sweat helps to spread our natural scent potentially attracting mates.
• People expose more skin and spend more time outdoors with other people during the summer – creating more opportunities for sexual encounters.
• We conflate our vocabulary and our perceptions. Warmth is associated with intimacy which may lead people to be more…intimate with one another.

To read more including how sex affects sperm production, the role that pheromones play, what Trojan’s “Degrees of Please” survey tells us, nudity in the winter, how visual attraction defers between men and women, and links to several studies where you can learn more, click here.

Source: Slate

Alex Tabarrok has a fascinating article where he looks at the evolution of fire-fighters in America. Highlights include:

• In the past 35 years the number of fires have rapidly declined while the number of firefighters have even more rapidly increased.
• Every time a fire truck is called it costs around $3,500 – and 25 calls in 24 hours is not uncommon.
• The number of false alarms has doubled.
• To give firefighters something to do they’re increasingly involved in activities such as responding to medical emergencies, dealing with gang violence, and even teaching.

To read more including many more details, several informative and fascinating graphs, the state of volunteer firefighters in the United States, why it’s hard to negotiate with firefighters, how Washington State is changing how it does things, what else firefighters do with their down time, why you can’t just have them lounging about, and the role of unions, click here.

Source: Marginal Revolution

Chris Bowlby described the rarely discussed religious undertone to the Eurozone crisis:

• Even though religion appears to be in decline, religious traditions still seem to shape views on money and debt.
• Protestant Germany’s word for debt is the same as “guilt” or “sin”.
• The German Chancellor and President are both from East Germany – an area where Protestantism dominates.
• Historians have pointed out that in the 19^th century there was a Latin Currency Union that Germany refused to join. The union collapsed after countries such as the Papal States minted more money than they should have.
• Perhaps the future of the Eurozone involves a Catholic Latin Union on one side and a Protestant Germany, a Calvinist Netherlands, and a Lutheran Finland on the other.

To read more including how this religious tone played out in the last European summit, Merkel’s religious roots and how she is reminiscent of both Margaret Thatcher and Martin Luther, the 500 year anniversary of Protestant reformation, and the echoes of what Luther was protesting against, click here.

Source: BBC

Tom Shone explained how Hollywood became unhinged from America and why this was the case:

• The American film industry no longer seems…American.
  • The star of the Batman trilogy, Christian Bale, is Welsh.
  • Films used to be about Americans on the big screen such as in Forrest Gump or The Godfather. In 2011 among America’s top 20 movies only The Help and Bridesmaids were American stories. The rest took place in fantasy worlds such as Thor or abroad such as The Hangover.
  • The only stories you’ll see about New York is ones where it is destroyed.
  • The Artist, The King’s Speech, and Slumdog Millionaire have won the Oscars – all films about other countries.
• The reason for this decline is the increasingly lucrative foreign box office.
  • 1993 and Jurassic Park were the first time foreign revenues were greater than American ones.
  • These days 70% of a movie’s revenues come from outside of America.
  • Movies like Battleship which did horribly in the American box office continue to get maid because they do well abroad.

To read the rest of the piece and find many more examples, how Avatar 2 and 3 fit in with this, why this is a Scarlet Pimpernel moment, why Hitchcock used to bill studios for his vacations, how filmmakers used to stake out prospector claims on America, why sets now have to be generic, why the French shouldn’t complain, what industry veterans have to say about it, how South American genres are winning over the north, and what Shone would like to see a movie about, click here.

Source: Slate

Jonathan A. Knee writes that New York’s love affair with Starbucks has turned sour. He juxtaposed the courtship years with the loveless middle age relationship that has now emerged. Highlights include:

• Starbucks in NYC used to work to make you believe that you had left the city:
  • Comfortable chairs distracted from urban life.
  • Cheap refills for discount hungry citizens.
  • Well-stocked bathrooms
• Now however:
  • The chairs are gone, and many Starbucks’ are now standing room only.
  • Since your refill is only eligible if you drank your drink in the store, Starbucks is now moving to eliminate refills since people aren’t likely to finish their drinks in a store without sitting room.
  • Starbucks no longer wants to be New York City’s public bathroom.
• Perhaps the reason for the change is that when it first entered the New York market Starbucks was a young chain looking to grow.
• But today New York’s stores represent just 1% of Starbucks’ total stores.
• Luckily competitors are moving in to fill the gap.

To read more including how Starbucks used to make you forget how rude New Yorkers can be, how competitors are responding to Starbucks’ transformation, the end of free Wi-Fi, and the rise of anti-Starbucks websites click here. It’s a short, entertaining, and well-written article.

Source: Slate