Antoine van Agtmael first coined the term ’emerging markets’ and for most of the past decade people have believed that they were the future. The tide, however, is now turning, he writes, and it looks like the United States may stay on top after all. There are five reasons why:

• Shale Gas. The United States has lots of it and is able to both use and export it.
• The erosion of low-cost advantage. Manufacturers shifted to India and China because of the cost savings. But wages have risen there while they stagnated in the US. Corporations can now consider manufacturing in the US.
• Ageing populations. China with its one child policy is ageing fast. America with its open immigration policy is not.
• Smartphones. China has done a bad job of encouraging the spread of smartphones while America has excelled at it, and they’re becoming increasingly important.
• Smarter competition. Companies like Caterpillar, Amazon, and Facebook have not taken the rise of China sitting down. They’ve evolved and adapted.

The comprehensive three page article written by a man who first predicted the rise of emerging markets – and now is predicting their relative demise, can be found here, where you can also read expanded bullet points about why each of these five things is giving America the advantage, and what the view looks like from emerging markets.

Source: Foreign Policy

App makers may be using manipulative tactics to make their apps seem more popular than they are, writes Ryan Tate, in a bid to draw investors. Highlights include:

• Those who produce apps have several avenues to artificially boost their numbers. They include:
  • Offering users virtual money in one popular app, in exchange for asking them to download another app made by the same publisher.
  • Spamming social networks such as Facebook.
  • Being slow in removing inappropriate content.
• The rewards from doing so can be substantial. Viddy, hailed by many as the next Instagram, raised $30 million. Its traffic decreased by more than 50% soon after.

To read more including other ways that apps can manipulate their numbers, other app-makers who may have engaged in these practices, what industry experts have to say, which app-stores are the most vulnerable, what the app-stores have tried to do, and why app-makers keep trying, click here.

Source: Wired

Brian Vastag writes that despite the Federal Government encouraging more people to become scientists, the jobs for these budding researchers just aren’t there. Highlights include:

• Traditionally scientists could conduct their research at academic institutions. However now just 14% of those with a doctorate in biology manage an academic position in the five years after graduation.
• At the same time the pharmaceutical industry has cut down on its research due to mergers, falling profits, declining investment, and outsourcing. One estimate suggests that 300,000 jobs have been lost since 2000.
• 38% of young chemists are unemployed. This is likely an under-estimate since many have found employment in low-skill jobs that don’t utilize their talents.
• Not all fields share this fate. Computer engineers, petroleum engineers, and physicists are doing remarkably well. Some even end up going to Wall Street.

To read more including why young scientists are now trapped in a Ponzi scheme, how post-docs have changed, the problem of debt, what scientists are now telling their children, what the experts have to say about it, where the jobs used to be located, and the stories of some who are trapped in this unenviable position, click here.

Source: The Washington Post

15 years ago Louis Theroux turned the cameras on the pornography makers and found a thriving industry. He returned recently to find that the internet had withered it away. Highlights of his article include:

• Big-name girls used to make $3,000. Now not only do they make much less, there are fewer ‘big-name’ girls around.
• Youtube like sites have risen that allow people to upload (often pirated) and watch porn films for free. This has killed the professional porn industry.
• Porn sites have increasingly tried to survive by making higher quality products. This is not all that different from the strategy of news organizations trying to survive in a world where the internet has changed expectations.
• Some of these high quality porn movies include parodies of famous films. One film called Iron Man XXX comes in a glossy two disc set. The Iron Man costume used on set cost $3,000.
• Women now use porn as a way to advertise private engagements where they can make much more money having sex with individual clients.
• It’s even harder for men. Fees have fallen to $150 or lower.

To read more including the moral issues related to the matter, the connection between Justin Timberlake and porn, when the tailspin started, the role of loyalty, changing norms, how studios have cut down on costs, the fate of Jon Dough, the inspiration provided by Hilton and Kardashian, the risks and irresponsibility of private engagements, and thoughts on where the industry may go, click here.

Source: Guardian

Via: Marginal Revolution

Trefor Moss writes “That’s globalization for you: A Chinese person turns off the air-conditioning, and the world economy catches a cold” and the Chinese are turning off their air-conditioning because the Chinese economy seems about ready for a collapse. He notes:

• Local governments are selling off the luxury cars they purchased during the height of China’s economic boom. This has made Ferrari nervous.
• “When the going gets tough, the rich head to the airport” – and more than 50% of China’s millionaires are considering moving to another country.
• Grocery prices are see-sawing. Egg prices have gone up so quickly that the term “Rocket Eggs” is now common among consumers, and pork prices (China ate 1.7 million pigs a day in 2007) fell so low that the government had to buy pork on the market to stabilize prices for producers.

To read more in what is an extremely well written article, with several witticisms similar to the one this post opened with, as well as to read more details, and find out why elaborate banquets might come to an end, the potential for future riots, what, exactly, “naked officials” are, and why it is likely to be a long hot summer, click here.

Source: Foreign Policy

Tim Newcomb reports that lobster, long considered the height of luxury dining in the United States, has this season become extraordinarily cheap. Highlights include:

• In general soft-shell lobsters are worth less than hard-shell lobsters.
• Lobsters typically shed their hard shells for softer ones in the beginning of July.
• However this year lobster harvesters have found that lobsters have shed their hard shells for softer ones a month early.
• This excess cannot be shipped abroad because soft-shelled lobsters are delicate.
• The end result is that soft-shell lobsters now cost $4 a pound – cheaper than typical deli meat.

To read more including why Canada is normally able to help America’s lobster harvesters, why it is unable to do so this time, what retailers have been doing, the role that distributors play, those that are taking the biggest hit over this new development, where these harvesters are based, what consumers should do, and how this will help everybody, click here.

Source: Time

Thomas Erdbrink took a look at Iran’s rapidly declining economy:

• Iran’s currency last lost 50% of its value compared to other currencies in the past year.
• This has caused runaway inflation – the government estimates it at 25%, while economists say it’s much higher.
• Iranians now live by speculation, not by production. They convert their money into American dollars and watch it rise in value, or use the money to buy land and cars.
• Meanwhile the value of people’s savings erode overnight.
• Oil sanctions are a part of the reason for the economy’s failing state.
• However policies pursued by the government have also contributed to the problem. The government used oil revenues to ramp up imports, putting domestic producers out of business.
• State subsidies for food and gas have also encouraged over-consumption and hurt the economy.

To read more including why factory-owners are now seen as losers in Iran, how those employed by the state have been faring, why Iran’s economy is like a casino, the role that Ahmadinejad played, what the sophisticated Iranian investors are doing, why shuttering domestic production was bad for Iran, and what Iranians have to say about it, click here.

Source: New York Times

Aaron Carroll reported on a fascinating trend: New York City’s life expectancy has been rising much faster than the rest of America’s life expectancy (perhaps the film-makers are somehow helping?) Highlights include:

• The most impressive is Manhattan. Its life expectancy rose by 10 years between 1987 and 2009. In the rest of the US it only increased by 1.7 years per decade.
• This might be due to various NYC health initiatives. They include calorie labels on chain restaurant menu items like McDonald’s Big Mac, a ban on trans-fat as well as public smoking, and extra bicycle lanes.
• The Bronx is the poorest urban county in the United States, yet it was still in the top percentile of America’s 3147 cities and counties in terms of life expectancy gains.

To read more including other reasons for why it might have risen, why it can’t be due to the reduction in homicides and traffic fatalities, why immigration isn’t the likely explanation, and a link to a follow-up post responding to the criticisms that have arisen, click here.

Source: The Incidental Economist