An Algorithm For Predicting Supreme Court Rulings

August 25, 2014 in Daily Bulletin

David Kravets wrote about an equation created by researchers to predict Supreme Court rulings:

  • The model has a 70% accuracy rate when predicting the rulings of Supreme Courts going back 60 years.
  • In contrast a Supreme Court fantasy league (seriously) has found that its power players have an accuracy rate of about 75%.
  • Fantasy SCOTUS and creators of the algorithm will soon be holding a competition to see which one is more accurate.
  • If effective, the model could be used to help litigators determine their trial strategy.
  • The model uses information about the justices such as the party that appointed them and the year they were born as variables.
  • It also takes into account information about the case and the general disposition of the court among the 90 variables it tracks.

Read about the model, how it works, why it’s better than models before it, and more over here.

Source: ArsTechnica