Betting On The Nobel Prize For Literature

October 6, 2013 in Daily Bulletin

Sometime next week the 2013 Nobel Prize for Literature will be announced. Chris Wright wrote about the bookies who might already know the answer:

  • The process of awarding the Prize is incredibly secretive. Not even the list of candidates being considered for the award are disclosed.
  • Nor does the committee disclose the methodology through which they award the prize, or the rationale for their decision.
  • Yet the gambling markets have correctly identified the winner 50% of the time.
  • In contrast a noted literary expert has only correctly predicted it once in 20 years.
  • Those who set the initial odds don’t read any of the potential books – instead they look at things like industry chatter, the author’s nationality and historical precedent.
  • In 2013 the markets are indicating that Haruki Murakami will be the winner.

Read more about how the gambling markets create a positive feedback loop and more over here.

Source: The Boston Globe