Centives

Centives has stayed away from the economics of the fiscal cliff – that’s the serious side of economics that we leave to more distinguished individuals. But Zachary Karabell’s article about why falling off the cliff wouldn’t be the end of the world caught our eye:

• While falling off the cliff is projected to create a recession in the first half of 2013; GDP is expected to rebound and grow by 2% in the second half.
• This short term pain will mean that over the longer term America’s debt and deficit issues will be mitigated to some extent.
• Additional legislation would also likely be introduced after America rolls off the cliff, to prevent the worst parts of the cliff from affecting the American populace.

Read more about the future of America, how the cliff plays into it, and an attempt to put the cliff in a greater global context over here.

Source: The Atlantic

John Timmer reported on a study done of the life expectancy of rock-stars:

• In general, richer people have longer life expectancies than the general population; and rock-stars are quite rich.
• However the data shows that being a rock-star completely negates the benefits of being rich, and in fact, lowers your life expectancy when compared to the general population.
• European rock-stars have a longer life expectancy than American ones, but European rock-stars still have a lower average life-expectancy than the general European population for the first few decades of their life.
• However, after 35 years of fame, European rock-stars had the same life expectancy as average Europeans.
• In general difficult childhood circumstances led to a greater likelihood of rock-stars dying of substance abuse or other risky behaviour.
• This suggests that being a rock-star isn’t what leads famous musicians to engage in excessive drinking, drug abuse, or suicide. Rather it’s traumatic childhoods that causes it.

Read more about the limitations of the study, other findings from it, and the pool or rock-stars that were used over here.

Source: ArsTechnica

How often can paper be recycled? The always excellent Brian Palmer had the answer:

• In theory paper can survive dozens of rounds of the recycling process.
• However each time paper is recycled the fibres that make it up are cut – quite often into pieces that are too small to use. This means that more realistically paper can be recycled up to about five times.
• Each time it is recycled, paper loses some of its quality. Therefore it goes from being writing paper to facial tissues, milk cartons, and, finally, cereal boxes.
• Most of the recycled paper is sent to China which doesn’t have enough forestland to feed its demand for paper.
• In fact, waste-paper might be America’s biggest export to China.

Read more about where your paper might end up, how paper is recycled, and why the United States should be thankful for China over here.

Source: Slate

Dorothy Pomerantz took a look at which stars bring in the most box-office revenue for every dollar they are paid. Highlights of the article include:

• Natalie Portman is at the top of the list. For every dollar she is paid, her movies return $42.70.
• Eddie Murphy, on the other hand, is the most overpaid star. For every dollar he earns, his films only make $2.30.
• Portman’s success is, in part, due to Black Swan, which had a very small budget, but did incredibly well at the Box Office.
• Kristen Stewart has the distinction of being both among the highest paid actors in Hollywood and one of the best investments.
• In fact, all of the main stars of the Twilight series make it onto the list of most profitable actors.
• Daniel Radcliffe, the star of Harry Potter, also makes the list although he is expected to drop off it as the franchise has come to an end.

Find the entire list, and read the methodology of the study over here.

Source: Forbes

After exchanging phone numbers with the pretty person you met at the office, you might also want to exchange credit scores writes Jessica Silver-Greenberg:

• Credit scores can affect the rates of interest you get on cars, homes, or other big purchases you might decide to make as a couple.
• To this end it has become increasingly common for dates to ask each other about their credit history to see if they are a good match.
• There are even online dating sites which allow you to find somebody with a credit score that meets your requirements.

Read more about how a credit check report is like a test for STDs, the stories of couples who are having difficulties in their relationship due to their credit scores, and the merits of how romantic a question it is to ask on a first date over here.

Source: The New York Times

Via: Marginal Revolution

The Europeans were able to predict that Hurricane Sandy would make landfall in the United States several days before the Americans were writes Scott K. Johnson. Here’s why:

• The European weather forecast model runs on one of the most powerful supercomputers in the world, while the American one runs on a less impressive one.
• The American system is also based on snapshots of data while the European system is based on continuous observation.
• The future for the American system looks bleak. Even though it has received some additional funding in recent years, it is not enough to put it on the same competitive plane as the European system.

Read more about weather forecast models and the differences between the United States and Europe, as well as one time when the Europeans got it wrong over here.

Source: ArsTechnica

Why, despite present conditions in the country, hasn’t Saudi Arabia faced a democratic revolution pondered Hugh Eakin. Highlights of his article include:

• Rapid population growth has meant that despite the country’s vast resources, per capita incomes have declined to a fraction of those of other Persian Gulf countries.
• Almost 75% of the population is under 30 yet they are ruled by an ageing monarch. The next in line for the throne is 76.
• There are huge economic problems in the form of high unemployment, rapid inflation, and a housing crisis in addition to social issues such as drugs and street violence.
• The country’s citizens are also well connected to social media – something that is said to have driven the Arab Spring.
• Yet the monarchy holds onto power because it gives liberties to those who desire it. Youth are encouraged to study abroad; at private beaches Saudis can wear western attire; and in walled compounds individuals are out of the reach of the religious police. All of this mitigates revolutionary passion.

Read more about the curious case of Saudi Arabia, why most things that people think they know about its history are wrong, and how two academics came to completely separate conclusions about the future of the monarchy in Saudi Arabia over here.

Source: The New York Review Of Books

Via: Marginal Revolution

We should prepare for a future where genetic warfare is a possibility writes David Axe:

• Future soldiers could be genetically modified so that they don’t feel fear or consider a retreat.
• However, Americans are generally squeamish about genetic modification. It is a feeling that other countries don’t share. Both China and Russia are likely experimenting with genetically modified soldiers.
• These techniques might filter down to terrorist groups giving them advantages that American troops don’t have.
• In the future battlefield it might also be possible to launch a weapon that alters the genetic makeup of enemy soldiers, thus rendering them more fearful, or less effective as fighters.
• Future assassins might also target the DNA of opposing political leaders, giving them forms of cancer tailored specifically to their medical profile. The American state department already collects the DNA of foreign diplomats.

Read more about this future, the man working to ensure that America isn’t left behind, and more over here.

Source: Wired