Jeff Wise writes that instead of being worried about there being too many people for the planet to sustain in the future, we should be concerned about the very extinction of our species. Highlights include:

• It took 12 years for the world population to reach 6 billion. It took 13 years to reach 7 billion. Our population growth is – for the first time – slowing.
• In countries such as Russia and China the total population could fall by 50% in our lifetime.
• This is because as countries develop and women get educated, there is a higher opportunity cost to having children, causing birthrates to decline below the 2.1 rate necessary to keep our population levels stable.
• The world’s population is expected to level out at around 9 billion – and then to start declining.
• Dealing with this problem is difficult. Countries such as Singapore have offered up to $18,000 per child and its birthrate is still just 1.2.

Read more about this future and when our population is projected to go extinct over here.

Source: Slate

International space agencies have been conducting experiments about the challenges and issues related to a future manned-mission to Mars writes Adam Mann. Here’s what they’ve found after a test where participants were locked up in a simulated space craft for 520 consecutive days:

• Most volunteers maintained a 24 hour a day sleep cycle – and it is important that all crew members do so in a spaceflight to Mars so that people are awake and sleeping at roughly the same times to maintain cohesion and morale.
• Volunteers also slept a lot more than usual – probably due to boredom. But this added rest increased cognitive performance.
• Overall there were a lot of individual level differences in how the participants reacted to the conditions, with some having significant psychological issues. A future manned mission to Mars will have to carefully screen to ensure that the space-voyagers that go on the trip have the right personality.

Read more about the study and what it found over here.

Source: Wired

Economists are having a raging debate about the monetary and fiscal effects of Smaug, from The Hobbit, taking over the Lonely Mountain. Our favourite was Eric Crampton’s take:

• When Smaug arrived he ate a lot of skilled Dwarven craftsmen. The loss of this human dwarven capital would have hurt the economy.
• The entire region around the mountain had also developed an economy that was based on trade with the Lonely Mountain. Their economy must also have been crippled by the arrival of Smaug.
• The people of the region knew that the dragon was in the mountain and could emerge any moment. This uncertainty could have had permanent effects on the lifestyle of the populace.

Read more about the economic issues behind having a giant fire-breathing lizard taking up residence in your home over here.

Source: Offsetting Behaviour

Via: CNBC

Psychologists have discovered a new effect that they’ve termed ‘the end of history illusion’ reports John Tierney:

• A study found that while individuals are usually cognoscente of how much they’ve changed from their younger days, they underestimate how much they’ll change in future years – (incorrectly) believing that things won’t change much.
• This effect was observed in all age groups, from teenagers to the elderly.
• This might be because “believing that we just reached the peak of our personal evolution feels good”.
• It has some negative effects – believing that our tastes and preferences will remain static might lead us to make regrettable decisions about things such as what we ink on our body or who we marry.

Read more about the effect, the details of the study, and what experts have to say over here.

Source: The New York Times

Via: Marginal Revolution

Almost all of the world’s diamonds pass through a single Indian city writes Jason Miklian. Highlights of his article include:

• In the city of Surat, it is estimated that 10% of the 5 million population is involved in the diamond trade.
• More than 90% of the world’s diamonds pass through this city – only about two thirds of them are legal.
• Diamond polishers here earn $1 for every $1,000 diamond they polish.
• The diamond trade is controlled by a secretive familial network that doesn’t allow outsiders. Those who cheat are kicked out of the circle, ensuring everybody’s loyalty.
• $150,000 worth of stones can be transported for as little as $2.
• “Blood diamonds” and other restricted stones that are intercepted are auctioned off by the Indian government, putting the conflict gems back into circulation.

Read more about the failed attempts to police the world diamond market, how the town came to achieve prominence, how the townsfolk reacted to the movie Blood Diamond, and much more over here.

Source: Foreign Policy

Peter Andreas outlined the history of condoms in America – and in the process illustrated basic economic principles such as the consequences of prohibition and protectionism:

• Until the 1850s condoms were made from animal intestines and imported from Europe – making them too expensive for Americans. This changed when rubber condoms came along.
• Around 1873 the import and sale of condoms was banned. This led to a thriving domestic black market that jump-started the American condom industry.
• The condom ban would begin to end during World War One when sexually transmitted disease became a real security threat. Condoms were given unofficial approval and were sold in government-run canteens.
• The soldiers that returned from the war were now familiar with condom usage leading to their widespread adoption.
• Even then it took until 1971 for all anti-condom laws to be taken off the books.

Read more about the history of the condom, one man’s doomed efforts to ban them, and how Trojan condoms got their start over here.

Source: Slate

Alyson Shontell believes that in just 50 years Silicon Valley – the home of companies such as Facebook – could soon disappear. What could cause such a calamity? The bursting of another tech bubble? The unsustainability of a business model driven by advertisement revenue alone? Patent wars? Nope. It’s all about the environment:

• Much of California’s coastline is threatened by rising sea levels.
• Silicon Valley, in particular, is 3-10 feet below sea level, meaning that flood waters could overtake the entire area.
• Perhaps this is why tech companies have had such a focus on saving the environment – they’re desperately trying to save their offices.
• Luckily the companies at risk have the cash to build improved levees to ward off the disaster in the making…for now.

Read more about future water level projections, the population of Silicon Valley, and other tech companies that might be affected over here.

Source: Business Insider

Romantic comedies used to be pretty dependable bets for success at the box-office. Yet in recent times their popularity has waned. What happened? Claude Brodesser-Akner outlined some of the prevailing theories:

• Dating and courtship have changed. Fewer people are getting married, and those who do are getting married later. Romantic comedies are no longer relevant to our love lives.
• Hollywood studios are putting less emphasis on them. They would rather have blockbuster movies with potential sequels that can guarantee cash-flow in future years.
• Audiences know that big scale Hollywood productions are best watched on big-screens, making the increasingly expensive tickets worth the price. Romantic comedies, in contrast, can just as easily be consumed at home, on a small screen, through Netflix.
• Quality talent, afraid of the bad reputation associated with romantic comedies, are staying away from the genre. Which means that the same few actors willing to do them are cast over and over again and audiences are getting tired.
• Romantic comedies are too mild. If people want movies about sex they prefer something more…extreme. Like Magic Mike. Or Twilight.

Read more about the different theories, some of the counter-arguments, and what studio executives have to say over here.

Source: Vulture

Via: Newmark’s Door

The robot apocalypse is here, and instead of humans versus machines, it’s machine versus machine. Ola Kinnander wrote about the battle for the market share of robot lawnmowers:

• While the rest of Europe’s economy is stagnating, the robotic lawnmower segment has grown rapidly. Over the next five years it’s expected to grow 20% a year.
• The mowers use sensors to stay within their owner’s yards and avoid obstacles such as trees. They don’t collect the cut grass, instead the machines clip them into pieces so small that they can be used as fertilizer.
• The mowers aren’t as popular in the United States in part because American grass is tougher, and thus more difficult to cut.
• The robots can cost anywhere between €1,700 and €5,000. Human controlled lawnmowers can cost as little as €300.

Read more about the companies fighting for dominance of the market, those that tried building them and failed, and the magical price line that manufacturers should aim for over here.

Source: Bloomberg

Via: Marginal Revolution