December 20, 2015 in Daily Bulletin
Paul Krishnamurty wrote about the foreigners making money betting on the American 2016 Presidential election:
- It’s illegal to bet on politics in the United States, but countries around the world have a more liberal approach to gambling.
- In 2012 the UK based Betfair saw $200 million traded in the market for betting on the next President.
- In America the focus is usually on the predictions on pundits who have a lot of name recognition, and often some sort of partisan bent.
- Betters, on the other hand, have to rely on extensive research and analysis, and must be aggressively neutral.
- As a result betting markets are usually more accurate than media personalities. In 2004 pollsters said that the race would be close, but betting markets showed a clear advantage for Bush.
- In many ways betting on political markets is easier than betting on sporting matches. Luck is much less of a factor. Krishnamurty is able to turn a profit of 90% on political markets.
- The Republican nomination – with all its twists and turns – has been a windfall for betters as they buy and short candidates with each swing of the poll.
- According to Krishnamurty the key to the 2016 election isn’t just to look at American trends but broader global ones. There is an anti-established, pro-populist wave across elections in the west, and American elections will likely be no different.
Read more about who Krishnamurty is betting on, his reasoning, the amount of money he expects to make from this election, and more over here.