Tim Newcomb reports that lobster, long considered the height of luxury dining in the United States, has this season become extraordinarily cheap. Highlights include:

• In general soft-shell lobsters are worth less than hard-shell lobsters.
• Lobsters typically shed their hard shells for softer ones in the beginning of July.
• However this year lobster harvesters have found that lobsters have shed their hard shells for softer ones a month early.
• This excess cannot be shipped abroad because soft-shelled lobsters are delicate.
• The end result is that soft-shell lobsters now cost $4 a pound – cheaper than typical deli meat.

To read more including why Canada is normally able to help America’s lobster harvesters, why it is unable to do so this time, what retailers have been doing, the role that distributors play, those that are taking the biggest hit over this new development, where these harvesters are based, what consumers should do, and how this will help everybody, click here.

Source: Time

Thomas Erdbrink took a look at Iran’s rapidly declining economy:

• Iran’s currency last lost 50% of its value compared to other currencies in the past year.
• This has caused runaway inflation – the government estimates it at 25%, while economists say it’s much higher.
• Iranians now live by speculation, not by production. They convert their money into American dollars and watch it rise in value, or use the money to buy land and cars.
• Meanwhile the value of people’s savings erode overnight.
• Oil sanctions are a part of the reason for the economy’s failing state.
• However policies pursued by the government have also contributed to the problem. The government used oil revenues to ramp up imports, putting domestic producers out of business.
• State subsidies for food and gas have also encouraged over-consumption and hurt the economy.

To read more including why factory-owners are now seen as losers in Iran, how those employed by the state have been faring, why Iran’s economy is like a casino, the role that Ahmadinejad played, what the sophisticated Iranian investors are doing, why shuttering domestic production was bad for Iran, and what Iranians have to say about it, click here.

Source: New York Times

Aaron Carroll reported on a fascinating trend: New York City’s life expectancy has been rising much faster than the rest of America’s life expectancy (perhaps the film-makers are somehow helping?) Highlights include:

• The most impressive is Manhattan. Its life expectancy rose by 10 years between 1987 and 2009. In the rest of the US it only increased by 1.7 years per decade.
• This might be due to various NYC health initiatives. They include calorie labels on chain restaurant menu items like McDonald’s Big Mac, a ban on trans-fat as well as public smoking, and extra bicycle lanes.
• The Bronx is the poorest urban county in the United States, yet it was still in the top percentile of America’s 3147 cities and counties in terms of life expectancy gains.

To read more including other reasons for why it might have risen, why it can’t be due to the reduction in homicides and traffic fatalities, why immigration isn’t the likely explanation, and a link to a follow-up post responding to the criticisms that have arisen, click here.

Source: The Incidental Economist

Rebecca Kesby described why it has become risky to be an entrepreneur in Russia. Highlights include:

• 10 million entrepreneurs have been jailed in the last 10 years.
• Business rivals often bribe the police to frame their competitors for crimes.
• Once charged a businessman is unlikely to be acquitted. Less than 1% of cases that make it to court result in ‘not guilty’ verdicts.
• One judge said that in the thousands of cases he presided over, he only found seven individuals not guilty, and five of those verdicts were later overturned.
• The best strategy for entrepreneurs is to bribe the officer who first arrests them. As the lowest ranked in the system they will also be the cheapest to bribe.
• $84 billion in capital left Russia last year – a record amount – in part due to the hostile business climate.
• The President has taken note. Putin created an “ombudsman for business rights” last month.

To read more including a profile of this new ombudsman, some of the steps he’s taking, what he hopes to achieve, what the going rate for a bribe is, the fate of Russia’s richest man, the policeman who felt no guilt, the assumption that the courts operate on, who prosecutors rely on, why it’s risky to find people not-guilty, and the role that blackmail plays, click here.

Source: BBC

Olivia Bergin reported on research carried out by the World Luxury Index about the demand for luxury handbags. Highlights include:

• British people were responsible for 42% of all searches for the most popular handbag brands.
• England’s own Mulberry was the most popular brand in England.
• Hermès Birkin however was the most popular across all markets.
• Americans seem to prefer the colour orange while Britons prefer tan, and the French, black.
• Japan is the only country where Louis Vuitton doesn’t rank in the top 10 brands.

To find out exactly where the famous LV bags are ranked in Japan, how this relates to Gwyneth Paltrow, an affordable brand that remains desirable, the full list of the most sought after brands, how the research was conducted, other difference between the British, American, and French markets, how Crocodile fared, and more, click here.

Source: The Telegraph

Via: BBC

Vishnu Sridharan and Anjana Ravi write that: “From digitized service-delivery to computerized bureaucracy, India is illustrating how information communication technologies can redefine government by taking bureaucrats out of the picture.” Highlights include:

• India has a large number of people living on less than $1.50 a day. Fighting corruption is important so that the poor can make the most of their incomes.
• In 2011 it was reported that half of all Indians had paid a bribe.
• One project called “Bhoomi” digitized land records. This allowed farmers to print documents at kiosks themselves rather than go through village accounts. Bribery dropped from 66% of users to 3% of users, and the average value of a bribe went from $2.75 to $0.06.
• After India’s Stamps and Registration Offices were computerized in one Indian state, those who said they felt it was necessary to pay a bribe fell to 8%. In another state where the old system prevailed 78% felt it was necessary to pay a bribe.
• However there is resistance from politicians who would lose if corruption is curbed.

To read more including how this has become an election issue for the main parties in India, more details of both the studies described here, what the University of Pennsylvania has to say, and one example of the system failing click here.

Source: Slate

James Rickards argues that it’s time to consider the unthinkable: debt forgiveness.

• America has found success in fresh starts before. The 1920s dustbowl convinced people to go to California where jobs were plentiful. The 1980s recession got autoworkers jobs in the technology industry.
• Forgiving the debt of Americans would give them the opportunity to begin a fresh start.
• There are already mechanisms in place for debt relief. Declaring bankruptcy for example. But it has become harder and harder to do so.
• A lot of people cannot move to where the jobs are because they are trapped by debt. Debt forgiveness could help free up the labour market.
• This is actually an ancient solution. In the Bible’s book of Leviticus there’s a section that describes how debt should be forgiven every 50 years.
• Creditors are unlikely to voluntarily forgive debt. But it would be in their interest to forgive some of it. Because if they insist on full repayment there could be another recession and thus bankruptcies that mean they recover none of their funds.

To read more including how the system described in the Bible worked, why it has become more difficult to declare bankruptcy, the moral grounds of the argument, why it’s not too late for the government to act, and the operational realities of what this would look like, click here.

Source: US News

Laura McLay took a look at the incentives behind tornado warning systems:

• Tornado warnings generally have a high false-alarm rate (warning of a potential tornado event that does not happen) so that there’s a low false negative rate (failing to warn of a potential tornado when there actually is one.)
• However there is a danger to having too many false alarms. Eventually people ignore them altogether.
• Research supports this conjecture. Tornadoes kill more people in areas where there are high rates of false alarms.
• In generals tornado warning systems fail to warn of an actual tornado 7% of the time.
• At the same time, they falsely warn of a tornado when there isn’t one 80-90% of the time.
• Perhaps instead of cutting down the false alarm rate governments should work on raising the tornado warning compliance rate.
• Public service announcements might not do it, but repeated airings of the movie Twister, just might.

To read more including how McLay’s compliance changed with time, the role of sirens, the importance of educating people about what to do when they hear a siren, the chance of dying in a tornado versus being shot in a mass shooting event on one college campus, how social networks can change things, and other interesting details about the issue, click here.

Source: Punk Rock Operations Research

Sean Gallagher took a look at the different ways that foreign militaries have gained access to American technology. Highlights include:

• Countries have a history of stealing American technology. In the 1980s Toshiba sold technology that allowed the Soviet Union to make silent propellers for its navy. The cost to US military capability from that is estimated to be around $30 billion.
• After the Tiananmen square uprisings the US government introduced controls on the export of military technology to China.
• These days military technological superiority lies within software. It is these lines of code that are the most lucrative, and billions of dollars of taxpayer money go into developing it.
• In addition to espionage, China works with countries to examine downed US aircraft. For example during the operation to kill Osama bin Laden a US chopper crashed and the remains recovered by Pakistan. Chinese intelligence was given access to this aircraft by Pakistani authorities.
• But the simplest method is just to buy it. Because the profits can be so alluring, and because the punishment doled out for being caught are comparably insignificant, companies continue to skirt around American arms export control rules, and sell sensitive technology to China.

To read the entire three page report, and to find out how China enticed a company to go down the rabbit hole, some landmark cases that the Department of Justice is investigating and has prosecuted, the technological underpinnings of the prototype J-20 Chinese stealth fighter, the role that Iran plays, the problem of dual-use, and what happened when shareholders found out that one company was illegally exporting technology to China, click here.

Source: Ars Technica