{"id":7738,"date":"2013-01-15T09:00:15","date_gmt":"2013-01-15T14:00:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.Centives.net\/S\/?p=7738"},"modified":"2013-01-15T09:00:15","modified_gmt":"2013-01-15T14:00:15","slug":"a-supreme-court-justice-death-calculator","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.Centives.net\/S\/2013\/a-supreme-court-justice-death-calculator\/","title":{"rendered":"A Supreme Court Justice Death Calculator"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" alt=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/upload.wikimedia.org\/wikipedia\/commons\/4\/43\/Supreme_Court_US_2010.jpg\" width=\"640\" height=\"426\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Chris Kirk and Stephen Laniel at Slate have used data from the Centers for Disease Control to create a calculator that looks at the likelihood of Supreme Court justices passing away in the next four years. Centives played around with the calculator and this is what we found:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>There&#8217;s a 63% chance that at least one justice will die in the next four years.<\/li>\n<li>There&#8217;s a 45% chance that it&#8217;ll be a conservative member that passes away.<\/li>\n<li>There&#8217;s a 33% chance that it&#8217;ll be a liberal.<\/li>\n<li>Justice Anthony Kennedy and Justice Antonin Scalia are the least likely to survive until 2017 with an 18% chance that one of them will pass before then.<\/li>\n<li>There&#8217;s a 0.05% chance that five justices will pass before Obama&#8217;s second term is over &#8211; giving him the opportunity to stack the Supreme Court with like-minded individuals.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>You can try out the calculator yourself over <a href=\"http:\/\/www.slate.com\/articles\/news_and_politics\/jurisprudence\/2013\/01\/supreme_court_justice_death_calculator_find_out_the_probabilities_that_different.html\">here<\/a>. (Your numbers might differ as the calculator seems to recalculate the percentages each time. We averaged out ten attempts for each of the scenarios outlined above.)<\/p>\n<p>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.slate.com\/articles\/news_and_politics\/jurisprudence\/2013\/01\/supreme_court_justice_death_calculator_find_out_the_probabilities_that_different.html\">Slate<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Chris Kirk and Stephen Laniel at Slate have used data from the Centers for Disease Control to create a calculator that looks at the likelihood of Supreme Court justices passing away in the next four years. Centives played around with the calculator and this is what we found: There&#8217;s a 63% chance that at least [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7739,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7738","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-bulletin"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"http:\/\/www.Centives.net\/S\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/01\/Supreme_Court_US_20101.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.Centives.net\/S\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7738","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.Centives.net\/S\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.Centives.net\/S\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.Centives.net\/S\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.Centives.net\/S\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7738"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"http:\/\/www.Centives.net\/S\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7738\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7742,"href":"http:\/\/www.Centives.net\/S\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7738\/revisions\/7742"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.Centives.net\/S\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7739"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.Centives.net\/S\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7738"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.Centives.net\/S\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7738"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.Centives.net\/S\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7738"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}