{"id":5088,"date":"2012-07-05T09:00:22","date_gmt":"2012-07-05T13:00:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.Centives.net\/S\/?p=5088"},"modified":"2012-07-04T22:16:30","modified_gmt":"2012-07-05T02:16:30","slug":"tornado-false-alarms","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.Centives.net\/S\/2012\/tornado-false-alarms\/","title":{"rendered":"Tornado False Alarms"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.Centives.net\/S\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/07\/070512_0155_TornadoFals1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"641\" height=\"363\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Laura McLay took a look at the incentives behind tornado warning systems:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Tornado warnings generally have a high false-alarm rate (warning of a potential tornado event that does not happen) so that there&#8217;s a low false negative rate (failing to warn of a potential tornado when there actually is one.)<\/li>\n<li>However there is a danger to having too many false alarms. Eventually people ignore them altogether.<\/li>\n<li>Research supports this conjecture. Tornadoes kill more people in areas where there are high rates of false alarms.<\/li>\n<li>In generals tornado warning systems fail to warn of an actual tornado 7% of the time.<\/li>\n<li>At the same time, they falsely warn of a tornado when there isn&#8217;t one 80-90% of the time.<\/li>\n<li>Perhaps instead of cutting down the false alarm rate governments should work on raising the tornado warning compliance rate.<\/li>\n<li>Public service announcements might not do it, but repeated airings of the movie Twister, just might.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>To read more including how McLay&#8217;s compliance changed with time, the role of sirens, the importance of educating people about what to do when they hear a siren, the chance of dying in a tornado versus being shot in a mass shooting event on one college campus, how social networks can change things, and other interesting details about the issue, click <a href=\"http:\/\/punkrockor.wordpress.com\/2012\/07\/03\/what-is-the-optimal-false-alarm-rate-for-tornado-warnings\/\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/punkrockor.wordpress.com\/2012\/07\/03\/what-is-the-optimal-false-alarm-rate-for-tornado-warnings\/\">Punk Rock Operations Research<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Laura McLay took a look at the incentives behind tornado warning systems: Tornado warnings generally have a high false-alarm rate (warning of a potential tornado event that does not happen) so that there&#8217;s a low false negative rate (failing to warn of a potential tornado when there actually is one.) However there is a danger [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5087,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5088","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-bulletin"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"http:\/\/www.Centives.net\/S\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/07\/070512_0155_TornadoFals1.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.Centives.net\/S\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5088","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.Centives.net\/S\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.Centives.net\/S\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.Centives.net\/S\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.Centives.net\/S\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5088"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"http:\/\/www.Centives.net\/S\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5088\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5095,"href":"http:\/\/www.Centives.net\/S\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5088\/revisions\/5095"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.Centives.net\/S\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5087"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.Centives.net\/S\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5088"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.Centives.net\/S\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5088"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.Centives.net\/S\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5088"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}